Temporal Disparities in COVID-19: U.S. Insights with OLS, GWR, and Random Forest

This study explores economic-demographic disparities in COVID-19 infections across varied population densities in the United States, employing OLS, GWR, and random forest models on zip code-level data from four regions. Significant disparities were found, with high-risk areas among disadvantaged groups showing varying infection risks across pandemic periods. Results inform smarter public health planning, guiding comprehensive resource allocation during crises.

Abstract

Although studies have previously investigated the spatial factors of

COVID-19, most of them were conducted at alow resolution and

chose to limit their study areas to high-density urbanized regions.

Hence, this study aims toinvestigate the economic-demographic

disparities in COVID-19 infections and their spatial-temporal patterns

inareas with different population densities in the United States. In

particular, we examined the relationships betweendemographic and

economic factors and COVID-19 density using ordinary least squares,

geographically weightedregression analyses, and random forest based

on zip code-level data of four regions in the United States. Ourresults

indicated that the demographic and economic disparities are significant.

Moreover, several areas with disadvantaged groups were found to be

at high risk of COVID19 infection, and their infection risk changed at

different pandemic periods. The findings of this study can contribute to

the planning of public health services, suchas the adoption of smarter

and comprehensive policies for allocating economic recovery resources

and vaccinesduring a public health crisis.

Team

Yefu Chen Junfeng Jiao Amin Azimian

Authors’ contributions

Yefu Chen: Conceptualization, Methodology, Formal Analysis,

Software, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing.

Junfeng Jiao: Project administration, Funding acquisition,

Resources, Writing - review & editing.

Amin Azimian: Data Collection, Software, Writing - review

& editing.

The author(s) read and approved the final manuscript.

Publisher’s Note

The authors would like to acknowledge the funding

supports from NSF (1952193 and 2133302), UT Good

Systems, and USDOT.

The cover image is sourced from Pexels and is free of copyright issues.

For more information, please visit https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8642183/